Bitcoin was trading in an extremely tight range near $64,000 on Thursday, as investors refrained from making big moves ahead of Friday's highly anticipated U.S. jobs report. The largest cryptocurrency by market value was last around $64,500, virtually unchanged over the past 24 hours and up about 1% on the week. Ether climbed 2% in the same period, but most major altcoins remained subdued.
The muted price action reflects caution ahead of the government's Nonfarm Payrolls report for July. Forecasts call for 80,000 jobs to be added, up from 57,000 in June, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.2%. The report is seen as a key input for the Federal Reserve's next policy decision, with markets still uncertain about whether the central bank will cut rates, hold steady, or even hike.
In the run-up to the release, U.S. initial jobless claims edged up by 1,000 to 199,000 last week, below the 202,000 economists had anticipated. The four-week average dipped to 198,750 from 203,250. Claims around 200,000 or lower are typically associated with a very strong labor market, which complicates the case for rate cuts. However, recent payroll readings have been weaker than the claims data suggest, creating an unusually high level of uncertainty.
Oxford Economics noted that markets are at an important juncture, with investors trying to determine whether inflation will continue to slow or remain stubbornly high. Bond yields remain relatively elevated due to heavy U.S. government borrowing, keeping long-term borrowing costs high, even as markets expect fewer rate increases from the Fed than they did a few weeks ago. The firm added that comments from Fed officials will be closely scrutinized for clues about their commitment to bringing inflation back to target.
One wildcard is Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. According to a Financial Times report, Warsh is prepared to raise interest rates in September if inflation fails to ease over the coming weeks and bond markets keep selling off. The report suggested that Warsh has acknowledged making mistakes in his first 10 weeks in office, including failing to reinforce his key messages on price stability. It also said the chair has tried to move away from the Fed's habit of guiding markets through winks, nods, and leaks, though the FT report itself was based on anonymous sources close to Warsh.
Geopolitical and macro factors also weighed on risk assets. Oil prices jumped after details emerged of a joint Iran/Omani plan to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal reportedly includes a ban on passage for vessels belonging to the U.S., Israelis, and other hostile countries, a condition that seems likely to be rejected. WTI crude rose 3.3% on the day to $77.70 per barrel, pushing Treasury yields higher, with the two-year note yield up six basis points to 4.24%. The Nasdaq slipped from a modest gain to a modest loss.
In the equity market, attention centered on SpaceX, which rallied on the day nearly 1 billion shares became available to sell. The stock was up around 4% to $112.35, despite the massive lockup expiry. SpaceX had plunged more than 30% over the past month and more than 50% from its mid-June record high in anticipation of the unlock. In conjunction with Tesla, SpaceX announced that their massive chip-building Terafab will be located in Grimes County, Texas, with an initial investment of $16.8 billion likely to multiply several times over. The companies said their combined demand for chips is expected to exceed one terawatt of compute, significantly larger than current global supply.
The broader tech market was supported by the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks, with Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta all up roughly 1%. This helped the Nasdaq gain 0.3% in early trading, even as AI storage names tumbled. SanDisk and Western Digital fell 5% and 12%, respectively, following their earnings reports.
On the crypto earnings front, MARA Holdings missed expectations. The bitcoin miner reported revenue of $174.9 million for the second quarter, below the $204 million consensus, and posted a net loss of $611 million, driven largely by unrealized losses on its bitcoin holdings. The company mined 2,422 BTC during the quarter, up 3% year over year, and increased its energized hashrate 22% to 70.3 EH/s. However, its bitcoin holdings fell 29% from a year earlier to 35,577 BTC. Shares traded flat around $10.60 in after-hours trading, after slipping 5% during the regular session.
CleanSpark also disappointed. The company reported third-quarter revenue of $138 million, missing the Street's $149 million estimate. Shares fell about 0.5% in after-hours trading. CleanSpark highlighted its 20-year, $6.6 billion triple-net lease at Sandersville, fully funded its anticipated equity commitment, and secured long-lead equipment to keep the project on schedule. Total assets reached $2.7 billion, liquidity stood at $917 million, and power under contract increased to 1.8 gigawatts. CEO Matthew Schultz said the company remains focused on commercializing existing assets and acquiring scalable infrastructure.
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have been seeing renewed interest. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs registered a net inflow of $626 million over three days, putting them on track for their best weekly performance since early May, according to data source SoSoValue. Analysts said the pace of inflows needs to be sustained for bitcoin to chart a meaningful rally. Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus, noted that several consecutive days of inflows would be needed to confirm a sustained recovery in institutional demand.
Despite bitcoin's stagnation, select tokens have posted sharp gains. MemeCore's M is up 24% over the past seven days, Pump.fun's PUMP has risen 20%, and Cardano's ADA has advanced 15%. These moves point to pockets of strength and selective capital allocation rather than a broad risk-on shift. However, gains concentrated in meme tokens offer poor optics for a market still attempting to climb out of a deep bear phase, according to some analysts.
In Washington, the CLARITY Act, which would split oversight of digital assets between the SEC and CFTC, is unlikely to clear the Senate before the August 7 recess. LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger said the market has largely priced in that outcome. Betting platform Polymarket has cut the odds of 2026 passage to 28% from an 82% peak. Kruger noted that the regulatory backdrop is improving with or without the bill, as SEC Chair Paul Atkins has signaled he'll provide clarity through agency guidance. He identified $67,300 in bitcoin and $2,000 in ether as the resistance levels that matter. A convincing break above either would signal a more meaningful upside shift.
SoftBank's quarterly results offered a mixed read on the AI trade. The Japanese conglomerate posted an 18% drop in net income to ¥347.3 billion ($2.3 billion), but that was far better than the ¥166 billion analysts expected. The quarter was rescued by a ¥1.3 trillion ($8.5 billion) gain on its Intel stake, which rose 216% in the June quarter. SoftBank's $2 billion bet on Intel last year did the heavy lifting, while its OpenAI position sat flat on valuation. The read for crypto is the same AI-capital signal that has set the tape all quarter: money is still pouring into AI and generating returns, but the gains are concentrated and lumpy. Bitcoin has traded as a high-beta proxy for that risk appetite for months, up when the AI trade works and down when it wobbles.
Coinbase is expanding into traditional stock trading for its U.K. users. The crypto exchange now lets eligible U.K. customers buy, sell, and manage select U.S. equities in the same app as their crypto holdings. Trading is available 24/5 with no commission and fractional shares, allowing investors to start with as little as 1 pound ($1.35). Traders can fund their accounts with sterling or USDC. The Nasdaq-listed exchange said eligible U.K. users will progressively gain access to select U.S. equities as of August 6, 2026.
The macro backdrop remains the dominant driver for bitcoin. President Donald Trump pointed to strong employment, better manufacturing data, and cooling inflation, while also raising the possibility of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A reopening would likely pressure oil lower, easing inflation worries and giving Treasury yields and the dollar room to fall. That is the setup risk assets want, and bitcoin is trading like some of it may arrive.
The problem is that the trade depends on several steps lining up. Lower oil has to feed into lower inflation expectations, and lower inflation expectations have to pull down real yields and the dollar. Bitcoin's roughly 63% correlation with the S&P 500 also means equity sentiment may matter more than crypto-native flows in the near term. A calmer Middle East backdrop helps risk appetite, but it can also reduce the safe-haven demand that supported bitcoin earlier in the summer.
The key levels to watch are real yields and the dollar. If both fall alongside oil, bitcoin has a cleaner path above the top of its recent range. If yields stay firm, the macro case remains theoretical and bitcoin likely stays pinned near $65,000.
Source:Coindesk News