Bitcoin and S&P 500 fear gauges surge by 10%, reflecting risk aversion
Implied volatility indexes, or fear gauges, tied to both bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 have spiked sharply as concerns over technology stocks weigh on global markets. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) jumped nearly 10% to 46.5%, according to Volmex data. The index, which tends to move inversely to bitcoin’s spot price, reflects growing demand for options protection. Meanwhile, the VIX, the S&P 500’s 30-day implied volatility gauge, surged 16.5% to 20.0, its highest level in recent weeks, indicating increased demand for options to hedge against further downside.
Global equities have come under pressure. Nasdaq futures were down around 3% in early trading, while South Korea’s Kospi index plunged as much as 10% earlier today, hammered by sharp losses in memory-chip shares. The synchronized rise in volatility across traditional and crypto markets underscores a broad risk-off sentiment, with investors bracing for continued turbulence in tech-heavy sectors. This risk aversion is not isolated to a single asset class; it reflects a systemic shift in investor sentiment as uncertainties about the economic outlook and central bank policies intensify.
The VIX, often called the 'fear index,' is a real-time market index representing the market's expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. A VIX reading above 20 is generally considered elevated, indicating heightened investor anxiety. Similarly, the BVIV captures the implied volatility of Bitcoin options, and a spike above 45% signals that traders are willing to pay a premium for downside protection, often a precursor to sharp price moves.
SpaceX drops another 16.5%, closing in on return to IPO price
Losses for Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPCX) accelerated into the close, the stock shedding another 16.5% today to $154.60. SPCX IPO'd 10 days ago at $135 and quickly ran higher to as much as $225 in subsequent sessions. It's been straight down since, though, with even today's news of a multi-billion dollar deal to provide computing resources to AI startup Reflection AI failing to stop the decline. The Nasdaq closed near its session low, down 1.3%, while the S&P 500 lost just 0.35% and the DJIA actually gained 0.3%. Bitcoin lost most of an early gain, trading at $64,500, up just 0.6% over the past 24 hours.
The dramatic reversal in SpaceX’s stock price highlights the volatile nature of recent high-profile IPOs. The initial euphoria that drove the stock to $225 has given way to profit-taking and skepticism about valuation, especially in light of broader tech weakness. SpaceX's deal with Reflection AI, while significant, was not enough to stem the selling pressure, suggesting that market sentiment is currently more influenced by macro factors than company-specific news. This pattern is reminiscent of other high-growth stocks that have seen sharp declines following rapid post-IPO rallies.
Hawkish Fed caps bitcoin's upside, Bitfinex analysts say
Zooming out from the hourly moves, bitcoin (BTC) is still stuck in a range caught between two forces: a hawkish Federal Reserve and a potential Iran-U.S. peace deal. Bitfinex analysts said in a Monday report that easing tensions in the Middle East could help keep oil prices and inflation in check, but the Fed remains focused on broader price pressures and increasingly appears biased toward keeping policy tight. From a technical perspective, the firm sees $68,500-$72,000 as a key resistance zone where many recent buyers may look to sell as they break even. Bitcoin failed to reclaim that range last week, reinforcing the view that the market remains stuck in consolidation.
Bitfinex analysts identified three key levels to watch: $54,000 as a longer-term floor, $72,000 as the breakeven level for many recent buyers, and $77,200 as the next major hurdle. With markets increasingly pricing a higher-for-longer Fed, both gold and bitcoin could remain under pressure unless inflation shows signs of cooling. For now, the firm expects bitcoin to continue trading within a broad $60,000-$70,000 range, but momentum remains fragile. The Fed's cautious stance, reinforced by recent strong economic data, has led to a reassessment of rate-cut expectations, which has historically been a headwind for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold.
Franklin Templeton launches crypto division after closing 250 Digital acquisition
Franklin Templeton on Monday completed its acquisition of crypto investment firm 250 Digital and formally launched Franklin Crypto, a new division focused on active digital asset management for institutional investors. Christopher Perkins, co-founder of 250 Digital, will lead Franklin Crypto as head of the division. Seth Ginns will serve as chief investment officer alongside Franklin Templeton digital assets executive Tony Pecore. The group will report to Sandy Kaul, the firm’s head of innovation. Franklin Crypto will offer actively managed cryptocurrency investment strategies through Franklin Templeton’s global distribution network. The launch builds on Franklin Templeton’s existing digital asset business, which includes research, portfolio management and institutional risk oversight capabilities.
This move by a traditional asset manager signals growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies, even as markets remain volatile. Franklin Templeton's entry into active crypto management provides a regulated pathway for pension funds, endowments, and other large investors to gain exposure to digital assets. The acquisition of 250 Digital, a specialist crypto investment firm, allows Franklin to leverage proven expertise rather than building from scratch. The appointment of industry veterans like Perkins and Ginns further lends credibility to the initiative.
'Steady lads?' Strategy's CEO just bought $1 million of STRC
'I bought $1 million of STRC today,' said Strategy CEO Phong Le on X earlier this afternoon. 'Will hold it until it reaches par, likely longer.' A cynic might call the second part of that post rather curious. If Le truly believes in STRC, why would he suggest he's just buying it for a trade instead of collecting the tax deferred 11.5% (or higher) yield in perpetuity? A bigger cynic might say the Le post sounds at least somewhat similar to Do Kwon's infamous May 2022 Twitter post written days before TerraUSD's ultimate collapse: 'Deploying more capital — steady lads.' STRC today is up 1.2% to $89.68.
Phong Le's purchase is a symbolic show of confidence in Strategy's high-yield preferred stock, which has been under pressure. However, the comparison to Do Kwon's ill-fated 'steady lads' tweet has not gone unnoticed in the crypto community, raising eyebrows about the wisdom of such bravado during turbulent times. The 11.5% dividend yield on STRC is attractive, but the stock's recent volatility suggests that investors are pricing in significant risk. Le's buy could be an effort to stabilize the stock, but market participants remain cautious.
Crypto shares give up gains, turn lower alongside Nasdaq and bitcoin
Monday morning's early rally is no more as bitcoin (BTC) heads back to the $64,000 area and the Nasdaq slips to a session low, down 1.2%. Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Broadcom, and Oracle are leading the Nasdaq lower, though some AI favorites like Intel, Micron, and AMD are holding onto gains. Up sizably early in the day, Strategy (MSTR) is now lower by 2.7%, while Coinbase (COIN) has returned to flat after also being up big. Circle (CRCL) and Galaxy Digital have also turned lower. Among those holding gains are Bullish (BLSH) and MARA Holdings (MARA).
The reversal in crypto-related equities mirrors the broader market trend, where early optimism gave way to selling pressure as the session progressed. The correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks remains high, partly due to shared investor bases and similar macro sensitivities. The Nasdaq's decline was led by mega-cap tech names, which are particularly sensitive to interest rate expectations. The fact that AI-related stocks like Micron managed to hold gains suggests that the selloff is not uniform, but rather focused on names with elevated valuations.
U.S. Dollar strength pressures bitcoin as yields rise and risk assets retreat
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed above 101 on Monday, pressuring risk assets across markets. The move higher in the dollar was accompanied by a 1.2% rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, pushing it back above 4.5%. Bitcoin briefly traded above $65,500 early in U.S. hours before retreating to around $64,700. Strategy (MSTR) fell more than 7% intraday, after reaching a session high of $120 before dropping to $111. Earlier, the company announced the purchase of an additional 520 BTC and increased its cash reserves by $300 million, bringing total U.S. dollar holdings to $1.4 billion. Gold fell over 1% below $4,200, Brent crude dropped 2.5% below $74 per barrel, while the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 both slipped modestly into negative territory.
The strengthening dollar is a powerful headwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets. A stronger dollar typically leads to capital outflows from emerging markets and riskier assets, as global investors seek the safety of U.S. assets and higher yields. The simultaneous rise in Treasury yields makes fixed-income investments more attractive relative to speculative assets. This dynamic is likely to persist until the Federal Reserve signals a more dovish stance, which appears unlikely given the current inflationary pressures.
Nasdaq quickly reverses to 1% loss as SpaceX tumbles another 10%
Stocks started in strong fashion Monday, but things have quickly reversed a bit more than an hour into the session. The Nasdaq is now lower by more than 1%, led by a 5% decline in Google and 3.5% drops in Amazon and Broadcom. Not yet part of the index but nonetheless an influential name, SpaceX (SPCX) is down 10.4% to $165.78. Though still nicely higher than the $135 offering price, SPCX has now dropped about 27% from its record $225. Bitcoin has given up some early gains, though it remains higher for the day at $64,800.
The quick reversal in stock market sentiment illustrates the fragility of the current rally. Early gains, possibly driven by bargain hunting or short covering, were quickly overwhelmed by renewed selling pressure as investors locked in profits and reassessed risks. The consistent pattern of morning rallies fading into afternoon selloffs has become a hallmark of this market environment, reflecting deep-seated anxiety about inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions.
Bank of America sees Fed raising rates three times by year-end
Bank of America now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times before the end of 2026 as opposed to holding rates steady throughout the year. In a research note on Monday, the bank said it expects 25-basis-point rate hikes in September, October and December, which would lift the Federal Funds rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. The revised forecast comes as a result of stronger-than-expected economic data and what it described as a more hawkish Fed 'reaction function.' Bank of America said core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, could reach 3.5% in May, about 70 basis points above its level a year earlier. It also said that policymakers seem increasingly concerned that inflation pressures are becoming more persistent.
The bank also expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged through 2027, arguing that inflation is likely to remain sticky and prevent real interest rates from becoming overly restrictive. This forecast is more aggressive than current market pricing, which sees only about a 50% probability of a single hike this year. If Bank of America's scenario materializes, it would represent a significant tightening of financial conditions, further pressuring risk assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks. The hawkish outlook is based on the view that the economy remains resilient and that underlying inflation is proving difficult to tame.
Micron-Anthropic deal sparks broader AI infrastructure rally
Micron Technology (MU) and Anthropic have announced a strategic partnership aimed at advancing next-generation AI infrastructure. The collaboration includes joint development of AI memory and storage architectures, a multi-year supply agreement, enterprise deployment of Anthropic’s Claude models across Micron's operations, and shared research initiatives. MU shares soared to a new record high above $1,200 on the news. They've pulled back to $1,188 since, still higher by 4.8% for the day. The partnership fueled gains across AI infrastructure and data center plays, WhiteFiber (WYFI) (+13%), KEEL Holdings (KEEL) (+14%), and Hive Digital (HIVE) (+23%).
The Micron-Anthropic deal underscores the growing demand for specialized hardware and software solutions in the AI space. Micron's memory chips are critical for training and running large language models, and the partnership with Anthropic, a leading AI research firm, positions Micron to capitalize on the AI boom. The spillover effect to other AI-related stocks highlights the market's strong appetite for any news that validates the AI growth narrative, even as broader markets struggle.
Bitcoin rises above $65,000 in early crypto bounce
After yet another rough week, crypto is getting off to a good start on Monday. Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) are both higher by more than 2% over the past 24 hours, with BTC rising above $65,000 and ether to $1,770. Among crypto-related stocks making moves are Coinbase (COIN), Galaxy Digital (GLXY), up 4.3% and Circle Financial (CRCL), up 4.8%. Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) is higher by 5.6%. The company's roughed-up high-yielding preferred stock STRC is ahead 2.5% to $90.85, continuing to bounce after its plunge to below $83 at one point on Thursday.
The early bounce in crypto assets and related stocks suggests some bargain hunting after last week's selloff, but the gains proved short-lived as the macro headwinds reasserted themselves. The inability to hold above $65,000 for Bitcoin and the subsequent decline back to $64,000 indicates that the recovery lacks conviction. Market participants are closely watching for any catalyst that could break the range, whether positive or negative.
Strive added 759 bitcoin for $50 million
More or less a 'Mini-Me' to Michael Saylor's Strategy, Matt Cole-led Strive (ASST) on Monday morning announced the purchase of 759 bitcoin for a hair under $50 million, or an average price of $65,850 per coin. The purchase was funded via the sale of common stock and high-yielding preferred stock, SATA, according to a filing. Strive now holds 19,864 bitcoin valued at $1.29 billion at BTC's current price of $65,000.
Strive's continued accumulation of Bitcoin echoes the strategy pioneered by MicroStrategy (now Strategy), which has transformed its corporate treasury into a Bitcoin holding vehicle. The use of equity and preferred stock sales to fund Bitcoin purchases allows Strive to amass a large position without taking on debt, but it also exposes shareholders to the volatility of Bitcoin. This strategy has become increasingly popular among smaller companies seeking to emulate Strategy's success.
Strategy raises its cash reserve to $1.4 billion and buys 520 more bitcoin
Strategy (MSTR) lifted its USD reserve by $300 million to $1.4 billion and bought another 520 bitcoin for $35 million, taking its holdings to 847,363 BTC, the company said in a Monday filing. The cash reserve, which backs the dividends on the preferred shares it markets as Digital Credit, has now grown by $400 million in two weeks while the bitcoin stack barely moved. Strategy said it will keep replenishing the reserve to support the credit quality of those securities, consistent with recent weeks, when it funded both the cash cushion and its bitcoin buying through stock sales.
The growth in Strategy's cash reserve is a notable development, as it provides a buffer for the preferred share dividends and reduces the risk of a dividend cut. However, the relatively small additional Bitcoin purchase relative to the cash build suggests that the company is prioritizing balance sheet strengthening over aggressive Bitcoin accumulation at current prices. This cautious approach may reflect management's desire to maintain flexibility in case of further market deterioration.
Robinhood raises $2 billion through convertible notes, earmarks $300 million for buybacks
Robinhood (HOOD) announced plans to raise $2 billion through a private offering of convertible senior notes due 2029, with an option for investors to purchase an additional $200 million. The company said the capital raise is intended to enhance strategic flexibility and support future growth initiatives. Approximately $300 million of the proceeds will be used for share repurchases, while part of the funds will finance capped call transactions designed to limit shareholder dilution up to a targeted 125% premium to the stock's pricing date. Following the announcement, Robinhood shares fell roughly 2% in premarket trading.
Robinhood's move to raise capital and buy back shares is a dual-pronged strategy: it strengthens the company's balance sheet while also signaling confidence to investors through repurchases. The convertible note structure allows Robinhood to raise funds at a relatively low cost, but the dilution risk is managed through the capped call transactions. The market's initial negative reaction suggests that some investors view the capital raise as a sign of weakness or as an opportunistic move that could signal a need for cash in a volatile market.
Bank of England drops stablecoin holding limits, sets £40 billion cap
The Bank of England has scrapped plans to limit how much stablecoin consumers and businesses can hold, replacing the proposal with a temporary £40 billion ($50.6 billion) cap on the total issuance of any single systemic stablecoin. The move follows criticism from lawmakers and the crypto industry, which argued the restrictions would hurt innovation and competitiveness. The central bank also eased reserve requirements, allowing issuers to hold up to 70% of backing assets in short-term U.K. government debt. While interest payments to stablecoin holders remain banned, transaction-based rewards will be allowed. The framework is expected to support a regulated stablecoin launch in 2027.
The BoE's regulatory shift is a significant development for the stablecoin ecosystem, as it provides a clearer path for issuance while maintaining systemic safeguards. The £40 billion cap is substantial enough to allow for meaningful growth while preventing any single stablecoin from becoming too large to fail. The easing of reserve requirements to include more government debt is also positive for issuers, as it allows them to earn a yield on reserves. The ban on interest payments to holders is a sticking point, but transaction rewards offer an alternative incentive.
Bitcoin options expiry worth $10.5 billion looms as traders eye key $60,000 level
About $10.5 billion in bitcoin options are set to expire for June on Friday on Deribit, making it one of the largest expiries of the year. Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,000, while the options market's max pain price sits at $72,000, the level at which option holders would experience the greatest aggregate losses at expiry. Market positioning remains relatively balanced, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.83, indicating slightly stronger bullish sentiment. The largest concentration of put open interest is at the $60,000 strike, suggesting a key downside support level, while the highest call open interest is clustered at $80,000, highlighting a major upside target for traders.
The upcoming options expiry is a major event for Bitcoin markets, as the large notional value of contracts could lead to increased volatility as traders roll or close their positions. The max pain price of $72,000 is well above the current spot price, suggesting that market makers may have an incentive to push prices higher to minimize their payouts. However, the concentration of put open interest at $60,000 indicates that many traders are hedging against a potential breakdown. The balance between bullish and bearish positioning suggests that the market is wide open for a significant move in either direction.
UK markets show limited reaction to Kier Starmer's resignation
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced he will step down, paving the way for Britain's sixth leader in seven years, with a successor expected to be in place before Parliament returns in September. Markets appear to have largely priced in the political transition, with GBP/USD slipping just 0.15% to $1.32 and the 10-year gilt yield edging up to 4.85%.
The muted market reaction to Starmer's resignation reflects the fact that political instability has become almost a constant in the U.K. over the past decade. Investors seem to be focused more on economic fundamentals and the Bank of England's monetary policy rather than on the revolving door at 10 Downing Street. The relatively small moves in sterling and gilt yields suggest that the market expects a smooth transition and no radical policy shifts, regardless of who becomes the next party leader.
A weekend trade betting on a HYPE rally to $150
Onchain options platform Derive saw a massive 'bull call spread' in HYPE over the weekend, signaling expectations of a rally to $150 by year-end. A trader moved 50,000 contracts targeting the December 2026 expiry by buying the $100 strike call while simultaneously selling (writing) calls at the $150 strike. The so-called bull call spread is essentially a bet that HYPE is headed higher, with a specific 'ceiling' of $150 in mind. The trader wants the asset to settle well above $100 but ideally stay just under the $150 mark. This multi-leg strategy is a classic way to reduce the cost of a bullish bet while still capturing a significant move higher. 'Combined, the two legs form a bull call spread, reflecting a view that HYPE settles above $100 but below $150 by expiry,' data tracking platform Laevitas said on X. As of this writing, HYPE changed hands at $67, according to CoinDesk data.
This large trade is a vote of confidence in HYPE's long-term potential, despite its current price being well below the $100 strike. The bull call spread structure limits both the maximum profit and loss, allowing the trader to express a bullish view with a capped risk. If HYPE rises above $150, the trader's profit is capped at $50 per contract (the difference between strikes), but the cost is reduced compared to buying a call outright. This strategy is often employed by sophisticated investors who expect a significant rally but want to limit upfront costs and define their maximum return.
The large size of the trade (50,000 contracts) suggests that it is likely an institutional or high-net-worth individual making a speculative bet. Such moves can sometimes create self-fulfilling prophecies as market makers hedge their positions, potentially driving the price toward the strike. However, it is important to note that this is a long-dated trade (December 2026), so the immediate impact on spot prices may be limited.
Strategy's STRC rebounds toward $90 as Saylor hints at another bitcoin purchase
After Thursday's selloff in Strategy's (MSTR) STRC preferred shares, which fell as low as $82.53, the stock has rebounded and is trading just below $90 in Monday pre-market action. Bitcoin remains steady around $64,000, while Strategy (MSTR) is up roughly 1% in pre-market trading. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor also hinted at another bitcoin purchase over the weekend. Posting on X on Sunday, he wrote: 'Looks better with more dots,' a phrase that the company will likely announce additional bitcoin acquisitions on Monday.
The rebound in STRC suggests that the panic selling from last week may have abated, at least temporarily. Saylor's cryptic post is a well-known signal that Strategy has been buying more Bitcoin, which often provides a short-term boost to the stock and preferred shares. However, the sustainability of the rebound will depend on broader market conditions and the perceived credit quality of STRC. The preferred shares offer a high yield, but they are also junior to debt in the capital structure, making them sensitive to any changes in Strategy's financial health.
Bitcoin is stuck near $64,000 as ETF outflows reach a sixth week
Bitcoin is trading around $64,000, per CoinDesk pricing data, still searching for a catalyst strong enough to break the range it has held for weeks. Selling from spot bitcoin ETFs has eased from earlier this month, but fresh institutional demand has yet to return. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have now posted a sixth straight week of net outflows, data shows, with only a sparse few days of green. The scale has narrowed, but the absence of any sustained inflow shows institutions remain defensive as markets reassess the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path.
A bigger weight is the rebounding dollar. After the June meeting, the Fed's cautious message weakened expectations for near-term rate cuts, lifting the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against major currencies, to the 100.6-100.8 area while keeping Treasury yields high. With liquidity still tight, capital favors assets with steadier yields over volatile ones like bitcoin. Easing geopolitical tension after the U.S.-Iran deal has improved risk appetite, a short-term support. It has not been strong enough to offset the firmer dollar and the cautious flows.
Bitcoin will likely hold a $60,000 to $67,000 range in the near term, said Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, in emailed comments to CoinDesk. The market is 'balanced between supportive and restrictive forces,' he said, with eased ETF selling and better sentiment on one side and an unsupportive Fed and unconfirmed institutional flows on the other. A sustainable recovery in the second half would need more time to accumulate, a return of ETF inflows and stronger institutional demand. Until then, the current rebounds look technical rather than the start of a new uptrend.
Source:Coindesk News